Iowa means what?

This multi-ring circus is a media feeding frenzy. The effectiveness and usefuleness are debatable.

This year we have Newt and Mitt polling at a combined 47%, with the rest of the pack combined at 50%. In other words half of Iowa does not support the front runners. This is shaping up to to actually mean something.

If Newt continues to slide and stumble, his supporters may turn their gaze to one of the conservatives at the back of the pack. There is still a glimmer of hope in the Bachmann, Santorum, Perry and Paul camps. Ron Paul will have a difficult time convincing voters of his conservative bona fides given his positions on abortion, drugs and foreign conflict. Choice, pot and peace are not rallying cries amongst Iowans.

The caucus process itself is an odd thing. People who work, or are sick, or who must take care of their children are challenged to participate due to the time demands of hours spent caucusing during a weekday. Absentee voting is barred, so active-duty Iowan soldiers lose the opportunity to participate, as do locally-registered college students who leave the state during winter holidays. This is not a simple popular vote. The rules are complex.

Advocates of the caucus process argue that the system favors the most motivated voters, and that supporters of non-viable candidates are able to realign with a more popular candidate and still make their vote count. Caucus-goers praise the interactiveness of the process. With all of the last minute speechifying caucus-goers tend to get more information before making their vote, so those voting are potentially be more educated than primary-goers. (Even if it means they'll need to go to re-education camps afterwards)

The complexity enters as each precinct's vote is weighed differently due to its past voting record. (That sounds fair!) Ties can occur and may be solved by picking a name out of a hat or a coin toss, leading to anger over the true democratic nature of these caucuses. (Grandma's gonna be pissed if that happens!)

Aguably the biggest who-gives-a-rats-ass quality of the Iowa caucus is the traditionally low turnout. All this fuss and money to win over a bunch of conservative retirees. A helluva lot of money for a candidate to gain a foothold and for about one percent of the nation's delegates to be chosen by the Iowa State Convention.

I predict the second and third place finishers to declare victory. (They do that you know!) A slim glimmer of hope may yet await the next not-Romney contestant. This means more money and potentially matching funds. The winner in Iowa will likely not be the Republican nominee.

Up next...New Hampshire. Yay! I am nearly paralyzed with boredom.